Picks
Handicappers
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Matt Fargo |
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| Matt has ONE play Sunday (1 CFB) He is riding a SIZZLING 12-7-2 ATS (63.2%) run in CFB dating back to the start of 2010! He is ready to continue the momentum! |
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| SHORT STATS | ||||
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| Last 7 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| ATS Picks | +280.0 units | +31.6% | 71% | 5-2 |
| Last 30 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| ATS Picks | +400.0 units | +14.9% | 61% | 14-9 |
| Last 60 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| ATS Picks | +400.0 units | +14.9% | 61% | 14-9 |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Northwestern vs. Vanderbilt |
Northwestern -4-105 at SPBOOK |
Lost $105.0 |
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Vanderbilt was going to struggle again this season but the Commodores are now further behind the eight-ball. The sudden retirement of head coach Bobby Johnson on July 14th put this team in a massive hole and coming off a 2-10 season, that is the last thing they heeded. Newly hired head coach Robbie Caldwell is no rookie but he was thrown into a very tough position and one that may not sort itself out until later in the season when his young team finds some chemistry. Northwestern is not without its own issues but the Wildcats are in far better shape. Replacing all of the playmakers on offense may seem like a problem but there has been a lot of depth added to this team by head coach Pat Fitzgerald that the cupboard is not bare. The Wildcats have been to a bowl game in each of the last two seasons only to lose both of them in overtime. The goals are the same again and in this game, they match up very well in strength against weakness on both sides of the ball. Success revolves around the play of the lines, both offensively and defensively, and Vanderbilt is short on both as it has to replace the entire offensive line as well as three of the four on the defensive front. On the other side, the Wildcats bring back their entire offensive line as well as half of the defensive line. The real strength for Northwestern on defense is its linebacking corps and while the weakness is going to be in the secondary with three new starters, that is not going to hurt in this matchup. Caldwell announced that his starting quarterback would be junior Larry Smith who started nine games last year before a hamstring ended his season. Smith completed just 46.7 percent of his passes last season while throwing for only four touchdowns and tossing seven interceptions. The Commodores hope to have running back Warren Norman, the SEC Freshman of the Year, playing despite having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee last week. Even if he goes, he is not 100 percent. For the Wildcats, Dan Persa saw limited action at quarterback last season but was pretty solid in the time he saw. Saturday may be his first start, but Persa is no novice to Northwestern’s spread attack. He played most of the second and third quarters of the Wildcats upset of then-No. 4 Iowa last season and threw the go-ahead touchdown pass. He ran for 67 yards on 17 attempts against Iowa and he will be a duel threat. A balanced offense will be on display. On a roster with 55 freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophomore players, it is safe to say this is going to be a rebuilding season for Vanderbilt. On the flip side, expectations are high once again for Northwestern. The Commodores fall into a solid negative situation as well. Play against teams in the first week of the season that finished the previous year with four or more consecutive losses and overall had a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Northwestern Wildcats College football is upon us and no one is happier than Fargo! He enters the first Saturday of the year on a SIZZLING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) CFB run going back to the start of 2010! He is planning on a MASSIVE Saturday which is highlighted by a game that spells B-L-O-W-O-U-T! Join him for his Revenge BLOWOUT of the Year and CASH with ease! If you need a huge ROUT, this is it! |
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NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Cincinnati vs. Fresno State |
Fresno State -3-110 at BETUS |
Won $100 |
| It is revenge time for Fresno St. which went to Cincinnati last season and lost to the Bearcats by eight points. That setback seemed to energize the team as the loss dropped it to 1-3 on the season but instead of folding, the Bulldogs went on to win seven of their next eight games before losing in the New Mexico Bowl to Wyoming. That should serve as a motivator along with the revenge factor to try and get off to a good start this season. Fresno St. has won six straight openers. Cincinnati is coming off a magical season where it went 12-0 during the regular season before running into a peeved off Florida team in the Sugar Bowl and the Bearcats were crushed. It was not the end they wanted for sure and while things will not be nearly as good this year, they won’t be that bad either. The thing is that is may take some time for this team to find its chemistry after losing 11 starters from last year including the quarterback, leading receiver and most of the defensive line. While Cincinnati needs to replace most of the players in the trenches, the Bulldogs get everyone back, which may or may not be a good thing. I think it is a very good thing despite finishing 111th in rushing defense last season as an added year is always beneficial. The team and coaches made a trip to Fort Worth in the offseason to study TCU and if they can get anything from that, it could be a vast improvement and that will be a big boost. The Bearcats offense will look different in personnel and may look different in philosophy as they are actually going to try and speed things up even more. New head coach Butch Jones will be bringing the Central Michigan style to Cincinnati and while it has a chance to pop, it will take some time. New quarterback Zach Collaros was awesome in taking over for the injured Tony Pike and while he will likely shine in the new offense, it will take some time with the new receivers and system. While the Bulldogs return four starters along the defensive line, they return every starter across the offensive line as well and that is a massive edge. While Fresno St. lost NFL first round draft pick Ryan Matthews at running back, there is still plenty of talent in waiting. You can put a lot of inexperience back there and behind that offensive line, there will be success. Quarterback Ryan Colburn had an excellent junior season and can flourish even more this year with all of the experience around him. Fresno St. has been a money-burner in recent home games and that is actually giving us some value here. The Bulldogs have not covered a homer game since 2007, going 0-8-1 ATS the last two years and you can be quite sure the public and the linesmakers are well aware of this trend. Despite the early consensus lining up on the Bearcats, this line has done a complete turnaround and Fresno St., which opened as underdogs, is now the chalk in a classic reverse line movement situation. 9* Fresno St. Bulldogs | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Miami Ohio vs. Florida |
Total 52½ ov-110 at BOOKM |
Lost $110.0 |
| The days when Miami Ohio used to rule the MAC are long gone as the RedHawks have gone 2-10 or worse in three of their last four years. They should be a much better team this season with 19 starters returning but playing a team from the SEC is a different challenge. Actually they played Kentucky last season and that resulted in a 42-0 loss but this is obviously a bigger step up in competition. In order to play the total, we have to figure out what will be the matchup edges on both sides. As for the RedHawks, I expect this offense to be much better while the weakness of the Gators is their defense. Last season they were forced to start a freshman at quarterback and while Zac Dysert threw more interceptions than touchdowns, he did throw for more that 2,600 yards while completing 61.6 percent of his passes. His upside is huge and he has his entire offensive line back as well as the running backs. Florida is going to tough to penetrate but with only five starters back, it enables some early opportunities. As for the Florida offense, it is not going to miss a beat with the loss of Tim Tebow at quarterback. John Brantley has never made a start he is a player and he is going to flourish in this offense. As a backup last season, he completed 75 percent of his passes for 410 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He gets to play behind three returning starters on a massive offensive line as well as having playmakers at running back and wide receiver to take off some of the pressure. Even though there are only six starters back on offense, the RedHawks will have no answers for the Florida speed on offense. Miami has nine players back on a defense but this was a defense that finished 107th in the nation in scoring defense and that came against a cupcake schedule for the most part. While the offense was unable to run the football, the defense for Miami had trouble stopping it, as opponents gashed the RedHawks for 186.9 ypg. That is going to set up the pass in a big way. Since Urban Meyer took over as head coach, the Gators has piled up the points in the first two weeks of the season prior to their game with Tennessee. In the first five years under Meyer, Florida has averaged 45.7 ppg over those 10 games. This is actually somewhat skewed as the competition has been weak with the exception of one game against Miami-Florida where it scored 26 points. Take that out and the average goes to 47.9 ppg in the other nine games and Saturday’s game against the RedHawks fits those opponents. The Gators have won 20 consecutive season openers and their last 13 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium by an average of 39 ppg. They've also won 15 straight over unranked opponents, while Miami has been outscored by an average of 28 ppg while losing five in a row to Top 25 teams. Those types of scoring discrepancies point to an easy ‘Over’ that Florida could easily get on its own. 10* Over Miami Ohio RedHawks/Florida Gators | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Army vs. Eastern Michigan |
Eastern Michigan +10-110 at SIA |
Won $100 |
| We were on the wrong side of this game last season but we will come back with the Eagles in this revenge game. Eastern Michigan has no where to but up following a 0-12 season a year ago. Granted this team is not going to be contending for the MAC Championship unless things really turn around but the Eagles are going to be a good play early in the season based on last year’s results because that is where we get our value from in these first few games. Taking a look at the meeting from last year we see that Army won the game by 13 points but outgained the Eagles by only 85 total yards. Win the outright win, Army covered the 3.5 points it was receiving and now a year later with the game also being played in Ypsilanti, the Black Knights have gone from underdogs to big favorites and it is too big of an overadjustment in my opinion. The Black Knights completed a 5-7 season in 2009 which was their 14th straight losing season and they have not improved this much. Eastern Michigan sophomore quarterback Alex Gillett returns after being forced into action as a freshman in 2009. Gillett played in nine games, including three starts and threw for 763 yards and three touchdowns and finished second on the team with 484 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Those certainly are not great numbers but it does give the offense a leader with some experience this season after being thrown into the fire a year ago. Army does bring back a lot of experience on both sides of the ball and it will once again be running the triple option on offense. A year ago it was bad news for the Eagles as Army racked up 300 yards on the ground and that set the tome as Eastern Michigan finished dead last in the nation against the run. The good news is that the defensive front is deep this season with more experience as well as the addition of four JUCO transfers. Louisville transfer Latarrius Thomas adds an anchor for the secondary. Last season, the Army defense keyed the victory, forcing three turnovers and limiting the Eagles to just 223 yards of offense. The defense finished as the 16th best in the country which was a very solid ranking but the schedule played a big part of that as the slate was littered with bad teams. Leading tackler Andrew Rodriguez leads a solid linebacking corps but he is questionable this week with a back injury. Patience will be the key for the Eagles as will not turning the ball over like they did last season. Eastern Michigan falls into a solid contrarian situation as well. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allowed 425 or more total ypg on defense and returns with an experienced quarterback as starter. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Colorado vs. Colorado State |
Colorado -12-110 at BETUS |
Won $100 |
| This may be a lot of points to be laying for a road team but we have to remember this is not a road game for Colorado. As usual, this game is being played in Denver at Invesco Field. Looking back as last year’s meeting, the Buffaloes were favored by 10.5 points and lost outright to Colorado St. This gives us a few situations where we can come back with Colorado this year and have the value side as well as the far better team side. Being a rivalry game, it heightens those aspects. I for one do not like giving up a lot of points in a rivalry game, especially when the series has been as close as it has. Colorado has won only six of the last 10 meetings and of those six wins, only two have been by double-digit. But we are talking different years with different Colorado St. teams, ones that were much better than this year’s edition. Granted last year’s team was pretty bad but the Rams will be taking a step backward as there are key areas that will lead to a slow start. While the Rams are getting worse, the Buffaloes are getting better. Head coach Dan Hawkins has had a rough go of it in his first four years, putting together a 16-33 record and that fact that he is here for a sixth year is surprising to me. However, this is arguably his best teams since his arrival in Boulder and this first game is potentially the biggest in his five years as a win gets things rolling while a loss puts him back on the hot seat. The personnel is in place for a surprisingly successful season. One of the big factors going into the matchups of this game is the offensive line. Last season, the Rams offensive line was one of the most experienced around but it the complete opposite this season as the Rams bring back only one starter and in total, there are only 30 career starts on the whole depth chart. This is a problem no matter what players are counting on the line but when you have a true freshman at quarterback, it only accentuates the problem and that is the case with the Rams. Injuries and coaching changes hurt the Colorado offensive line a year ago but in 2010, it is going to be a strength. The Buffaloes return nine players to the unit, all of which have some sort of starting experience and they have combined for 79 starts. This will give Colorado a big advantage in the trenches as its running game will be bolstered with this year of added experience as will the passing game that is upgraded by starter Tyler Hansen who won the starting job over coach’s son Cody Hawkins. Making matters worse for the Rams is that projected starters at defensive end, Cory Macon and Zach Tiedgen, are out for the season. That hurts in a big way. Conversely, the experienced defensive line for Colorado should push around the offensive line of the Rams all day long. Play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with four or more straight losses and which won 25 percent or less of their games. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +21.6 ppg. 9* Colorado Buffaloes | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 04, 2010 Bowling Green Falcons vs. Troy Trojans |
Troy Trojans -14-110 at BETUS |
Lost $110.0 |
| For both teams, there is a lot that needs to be replaces from last year’s teams. Troy has to break in a new quarterback as Levi Brown is now in the NFL after becoming the prolific passer in Sun Belt Conference history. Also needing to be replaces are eight starters on defense including six of seven players at the first two levels. The good part about the Trojans situation however is that instead of replacing bodies, they will be reloading as the roster consists of 27 JUCO or four-year transfers. The situation is not as good for Bowling Green. I am a fan of head coach Dave Clawson as he was solid at the I-AA level and he is a great offensive mind. He was fortunate in his first season to have the best quarterback/receiver combo in the conference in Tyler Sheehan and Freddy Barnes but both have departed leaving a massive gap in the offense. In total, only eight starters are back on both sides of the ball and it looks at though eight freshman and sophomores with little experience will be expected to contribute right away. Troy is expected to once again contend for the Sun Belt title despite the off-season losses and the pivotal game is going to be a Tuesday night showdown at Middle Tennessee St. First things first however. This is the lone non-conference home game for the Trojans and while it may not seem like a big one, this team has payback in mind. They went to Bowling Green last year on opening night and were beaten by 17 points as seven-point favorites. It is time to avenge that embarrassing loss. One huge advantage at the quarterback position for Troy is that the Falcons have no idea what is coming at them. Trojans head coach Larry Blakeney has settled on a starting quarterback to replace Brown but because of the differences between junior Jamie Hampton and redshirt freshman Corey Robinson, Blakeney thinks it might be better to keep that information to himself. Blakeney said he hasn't told the team who the starter is, adding that “bloggers” and others with Internet access would spread the word. Bowling Green’s productivity on offense will hinge upon an inexperienced quarterback taking over the reigns and directing a spread attack that will involve working with a group of wide receivers also limited on game-day experience. In total, 22 seniors, 16 of them starters, will be missing. While experience is at a minimum, a home game to start the season would have been huge. Instead, Bowling Green heads to one of the tougher places to play in what is expected to be a raucous crown at night. The Trojans are a perfect 10-0 at home over the last two years and going back three years, they are 14-1 and as far as covering they are 11-3 ATS in the 14 lined games at Veterans Stadium. 10* Troy Trojans | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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| Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Tens in the past five years alone including four #1's. Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as �Mr. Analysis� as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you. Rating Scale Play Rating will be displayed in each title and range anywhere from 5* to 10* for Premium Plays and 3* for Free Plays. Enforcer – this is the Signature Play for Matt and is usually backed with a 10* Rating unless otherwise noted. Supreme Annihilator – this is typically a favorite or a pickem that Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line. Dark Horse Dandy – this is an underdog that is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright. Star Attraction – this is a game that can be seen on national television providing great watch and win opportunities. Total Dominator – while rare, these are the best over/under releases and occur more in football and baseball than any other sports. |